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Summary as of 8 October 2026

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What has been computed, how accurately, and what follows from it. Every number traces back to the computation log, which describes the runs, convergence checks and bugs found.

Updated: 8 October 2026

Key findings

Question Answer Status
Cold spherical collapse threshold in GR (Vlasov) μth(100) ≈ 0.039, μth(300) ≈ 0.019, μth(1000) ≈ 0.0086; no floor down to μ = 0.01 converged
How much later than dust the horizon forms 1.12–1.31 tC(0), growing towards small μ converged
Effect of velocity dispersion small (σ ≤ 0.01) speeds it up by 6–13 %; kicks of ≈ 0.03 c at turnaround remove PBHs at μ ≤ 0.05 within 300 tH mapped by source
Effect of the profile shape first order, through how synchronously the shells collapse 3 profiles
Non-sphericity, Newtonian 3D the third axis collapses 1.7–2.7× later than a sphere → μth(100) ∈ [0.039, ~0.06–0.08] estimate
A scalar field instead of particles (GRChombo) the core bounces (Kaup limit), no horizon closed
3D GR with particles, e = 0 horizon growth matches LTB and 1D to ±0.01 tC(0) passed
3D GR with particles, e = 0.2, μ = 0.3 horizon of ≈ 1 MH at τ = 2.09 tC(0) (sphere: 0.1 MH at 1.13) obtained
μ = 0.1 and 0.05 at e = 0.2 and 0.13 — running

Spherical collapse (1D)

Code: pbhgr/cosmo_ev.py — spherical Einstein–Vlasov in the areal gauge with CMC slicing K = −3H(t) and a shift, horizon-penetrating and fully constrained (equations in Appendix B of the plan). Initial data: the long-wavelength CMC data of Yoo et al. (2026), pbhgr/cosmo_id.py; reference: the exact LTB solution, pbhgr/ltb.py.

Code checks

  • A homogeneous Universe (FLRW) is reproduced to 10⁻⁹; the LTB cycloid to 1.7·10⁻⁴ at 0.8 tC, with second-order convergence.
  • Causal-bound test at μ = 0.36: every shell is trapped at its LTB tAH to 10⁻⁴.
  • A static Einstein–Vlasov polytrope stays static to ~10⁻³.
  • Convergence in the grid (K = 2000…8000, re-stretched spacing dR = 0.3/k → 0.15/k) and in the number of shells per cell (4…64): at small μ the multi-stream core suffers discreteness relaxation, which saturates at ≥ 32 shells per cell (≈ 1000 shells in the core).
  • Independent check of the horizon diagnostic with the sphdiag module (the PBH-VERIFY-01 pilot): the resolved horizon appears 0.29 tH after the formal criterion at μ = 0.10 — a ~1 % effect.

Threshold map (cold case)

First horizon versus amplitude μ. Dashed: LTB central collapse tC(0); orange points: the converged 1D map (CMC coordinate time); blue circles: 3D particles of Yoo et al. (2026) at e = 0.2 (lapse collapse); stars: our 3D PBHVlasov runs at μ = 0.3. Horizontal lines are the deadlines D.
First horizon versus amplitude μ. Dashed: LTB central collapse tC(0); orange points: the converged 1D map (CMC coordinate time); blue circles: 3D particles of Yoo et al. (2026) at e = 0.2 (lapse collapse); stars: our 3D PBHVlasov runs at μ = 0.3. Horizontal lines are the deadlines D.
μ tC(0), tH first horizon, tH / tC(0)
0.10 25.1 28.2 1.12
0.05 61.2 68.3 1.115
0.04 83.0 95.5 1.15
0.03 124 150 1.21
0.02 221 284 1.28
0.017 280 364 1.30
0.010 607 793 1.31

Thresholds where the curve crosses the deadlines: μth(100) ≈ 0.039, μth(300) ≈ 0.019, μth(1000) ≈ 0.0086. The first horizon is tiny (0.001–0.02 MH) and grows: at μ = 0.1, 0.1 MH is trapped by 1.43 tC(0) and 0.3 MH by 1.92.

For comparison: in the 3D particle runs of Yoo et al. at e = 0.2 there is a horizon for μ ≥ 0.050 and none for μ ≤ 0.045 within their ≈ 250 tH. The spherical map gives a horizon by ~80 tH at μ = 0.045, so the absence of a horizon in Yoo et al. at that amplitude is an effect of non-sphericity (or run length), not of the spherical threshold. The μ = 0.1 and 0.05 runs at e = 0.2 test this directly.

Velocity dispersion

A real field is not perfectly cold dust: it has a velocity dispersion (de Broglie, σent = √6/q at horizon entry) and kicks from small-scale structure that switch on during the collapse.

Source Amplitude Result
Dispersion at entry, σent ≤ 0.01 q ≳ 250 horizon 6–13 % of tC(0) earlier than cold (μ = 0.04: 88–90 instead of 95.5 tH)
σent = 0.03 q ≈ 80 same as cold
σent = 0.1 q ≈ 25 1.15–1.33 tC(0); μth(100) ≈ 0.040–0.044, μth(300) ≈ 0.02
Harada (2023), release at ρvir σv ≈ 0.17 c at ρ = 10³ ρent shift ≤ 1.5 % of tC(0) — switches on too late
Ebrahimian, k/k₀ = 30 ≈ 0.003 c at turnaround μth(100) ≈ 0.040, μth(300) ≈ 0.025
Ebrahimian, k/k₀ = 10 ≈ 0.01 c μth(100) ≈ 0.045, μth(300) ≈ 0.028
Ebrahimian, k/k₀ = 3 ≈ 0.03 c no horizon at μ ≤ 0.05 within 300 tH

Conclusion: a threshold floor is set by the kick amplitude times the time it switches on. A later release (bnl = 0.6 and 0.3) shortens the delay. The cold "no floor" result is fragile against realistic small-scale power — the decisive test is 3D with a real spectrum.

Profile shape

First-horizon time in units of each profile's own tC(0), for three peak shapes (cold, 32 shells per cell).
First-horizon time in units of each profile's own tC(0), for three peak shapes (cold, 32 shells per cell).
μ Gaussian (Yoo) lognormal Δ = 0.1 lognormal Δ = 0.5 super-Gaussian flat core
0.05 1.115 1.09 1.48 ≈ 1.0 tC(rm), 0.8 MH at once
0.03 1.21 1.10 1.80 same
0.02 1.28 1.16 none by 1.8 same

The profile shape is a first-order effect: it controls how synchronously the shells fall. A flat core collapses as a whole; a steep peak assembles slowly. With σ = 0.03 the lognormal Δ = 0.1 is unchanged (1.110) and Δ = 0.5 is delayed by another 12 %.

Non-sphericity: semi-analytics and Newtonian 3D

The Bond–Myers ellipsoid model for ν = 4 peaks: the median ellipticity e = 0.13 gives the pancake at 0.91 and the last axis at 1.05 of the spherical collapse time; the 90th percentile e = 0.19 gives 0.85 and 1.09. In this model non-sphericity shifts the threshold by at most 3 %.

A Newtonian particle-mesh code (pbhgr/pm3d.py, N = 192³, 7M particles) showed that this is a strong underestimate:

Collapse time of each axis of a triaxial peak in units of the spherical PM-3D time: pancake, filament and third axis. Grey marks: the Bond–Myers model.
Collapse time of each axis of a triaxial peak in units of the spherical PM-3D time: pancake, filament and third axis. Grey marks: the Bond–Myers model.

The third axis collapses 1.7–2.7× later than the sphere. The horizon must appear somewhere between the filament stage (~0.95) and the third-axis collapse, hence μth(100) ∈ [0.039, ~0.06–0.08]; the 0.045–0.05 of Yoo et al. falls inside. With a small-scale tail in the spectrum (ζ = 0.05, k = 2–10), one of three random fragments breaks up and the other two build one dominant clump. Only 3D GR can narrow the bracket.

3D GR with a scalar field (GRChombo)

Stage 1: does a coherent scalar field in 3D give the same horizon as the 1D map at e = 0? A PBHCosmo example for GRChombo (adaptive meshes, 5 levels, box 8 rm), μ = 0.1, m tH = 30.

The result is a bounce: the central density reached 1739 times the background at the caustic and fell to 0.3 by 1.9 tC(0) — the core emptied and no horizon formed. The reason: the Kaup mass 0.633/m = 0.028 MH exceeds the first-horizon mass in 1D (0.016 MH warm, 0.001 cold). At affordable m tH the field behaves like a boson star, not like dust. A scalar 3D calculation would need m tH ≥ 100–300 (3–10× the cost) and still could not see the tiny first horizon. Hence stage 2 — Vlasov particles in 3D.

3D GR with particles (PBHVlasov)

Stage 2: our own Vlasov particle module PBHVlasov for the GRTeclyn code (AMReX, CCZ4): deposition on all AMR levels, geodesic motion with each particle's proper time, a gauge referenced to the K profile, ray and sphere horizon diagnostics.

Step Check Accuracy
FLRW, dust homogeneous expansion 0.2–0.3 %
LTB, e = 0, μ = 0.3, geodesic slicing shell radii to 0.96 tC(0) 0.2–0.5 %
AMR deposition FLRW on two levels locally exact (1.0000)
Production gauge shells by proper time and mass label ≤ 0.5 % to τ = 0.96
Horizon growth (lapse coefficient 2, to 2.2 tC(0)) MAH(τ) against LTB and 1D ±0.004 and ≤ 0.012 tC(0) over 0.09–0.58 MH
Warm particles, σ = 0.0272 horizon growth at M ≥ 0.18 MH unchanged (0.1 % delay)
Apparent-horizon mass versus the proper time of the matter at the horizon, μ = 0.3, e = 0: the exact LTB solution, the 1D code and two 3D runs (late and early start). Bottom: the 3D − LTB difference.
Apparent-horizon mass versus the proper time of the matter at the horizon, μ = 0.3, e = 0: the exact LTB solution, the 1D code and two 3D runs (late and early start). Bottom: the 3D − LTB difference.

Stage 1b: early start and non-spherical peaks

To compute non-spherical peaks, the run starts early, at ti, from Yoo's long-wavelength data for any ζ(x): the matter is built from the constraints; geodesic slicing is used until 0.5 tC(0), then 1+log slicing (coefficient 2) with a Γ-driver; the time step follows the expansion. Two systematics with an O(dt/t) lag were found by the FLRW test and fixed; the particle density is matched to the constraint density to ~10⁻⁵, because the binding energy 2E at a super-horizon start is a small difference of large numbers.

Check at e = 0 (7 levels, 20 h on the CCX33): the early start matched the late start to 0.007 tC(0) and LTB to 0.010 in the proper time of the matter at the horizon, for M = 0.11–0.6 MH.

e = 0.2, p = 0, μ = 0.3:

Horizon mass versus far-field time: a spherical peak (e = 0) and a non-spherical one (e = 0.2) at the same μ = 0.3. The band spans the mass between the largest fully trapped sphere and the outer edge of the trapped region.
Horizon mass versus far-field time: a spherical peak (e = 0) and a non-spherical one (e = 0.2) at the same μ = 0.3. The band spans the mass between the largest fully trapped sphere and the outer edge of the trapped region.
time tfar / tC(0) M inner / MH M outer / MH Rmin/Rmax τ of the matter
2.73 first trapped point
2.974 0.87 1.07 0.81 2.09
3.256 1.10 1.27 0.94 2.38
3.552 1.27 1.44 0.99 2.64
3.965 1.42 1.63 0.94 2.97

The non-spherical peak collapses in turn — pancake, filament, third axis — and the horizon appears only at τ = 2.09 tC(0), but straight away with ≈ 1 MH, about the mass a spherical horizon would have grown to by then. At first it is clearly non-spherical (Rmin/Rmax = 0.8) and rounds off to 2–6 % within 0.5 tC(0). At e = 0 the horizon was born tiny (0.105 MH at τ = 1.13).

In Yoo et al., at the same μ and e, the lapse collapses at ≈ 20 tH = 2.27 tC(0). Our far-field times (2.73 and 2.97) refer to a different slicing, and their criterion is the lapse, not a trapped surface; the invariant statement of our run is τ = 2.09 tC(0) for the matter of the first trapped sphere.

What next

  • The warm first horizon and kicks from small-scale power in 3D (a real spectrum instead of a single mode).
  • Peak statistics: from μth(D; e, p) to the fraction β and fPBH, with the distribution of e and p at ν ≈ 4.
  • A higher-resolution check; a request to the Yoo group (V0) to extend their particle runs to 500–1000 tH.